Volume One Chapter Four: Is the Earth Warming or Cooling?

The Earth is warmed by incoming solar radiation and cooled by radiating heat out into the cold of space - as summarised below. Taking the temperature of the Earth's surface is not a trivial task. The surface temperature as reported, sometimes alarmingly, is not the whole story.

Warming

The heating of the surface by the sun turns out to be a difficult thing to measure and predict.. But in the Climate Change debate this warming is relegated to a bit part.

Cooling and the Greenhouse Effect

The Earth’s surface radiates heat towards the cold of outer space. Some of this heat is ‘trapped’ by the atmosphere so the Earth is much warmer than it would otherwise be. Estimates have been made of by how much the Earth is warmed by its atmosphere which are generally accepted to be about 33⁰C.

This warming is called the ‘Greenhouse Effect’.

It is variations in the Greenhouse effect that underlie much of the climate debate.

Additional Detail in Volume II

Chapter 3 (pp 190-208) is devoted to the Warming side of the balancing act

  • The radiation output of the sun 191
  • The 11-year cycle and general sun activity 191
  • The incidence of the sun’s radiation on the Earth’s land and oceans 197
  • Satellite measurement of solar irradiance 200
  • Reflection of solar radiation into the cold of space - Albedo 202
  • Is the net heating from incoming sun radiation varying? 207

Chapter 4 (pp 208-237) is devoted to the Cooling side of the balancing act

  • Introduction and Summary 208
  • Mechanism of the Greenhouse effect 209
  • Clouds 215
  • An Altitude perspective for TOA emission 220
  • A typical Absorption Band 226
  • What is observed? 227
  • Satellite record of outgoing (longwave) radiation 232
  • Summary – Real Skies Greenhouse Effect 234
  • Clear Skies Greenhouse Effect 234
  • The Greenhouse Effect – with clouds 236
  • Stratosphere, and above 236
  • End-note 237

Chapter 5 (pp 234-242) considers if the warming or cooling question can be answered

  • The Oceans 235
  • The Atmosphere and Pedosphere 239