Volume One Chapter Six: Climate Beliefs and their Modelling

This chapter begins with some clarifying definitions, the most important of which is Climate Change. The chapter then proceeds to look at how Modellers approach the question in hand.

Climate Change

The United Nations defines Climate Change as

"A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere”.

Note that the term, misleadingly, does not mean changing climate.

Other definitions:

Natural Climate Variability

The Little Ice Age

The Modern Warming Period

Human Non-emission Caused Climate Variability

Our Changing Climate

The Greenhouse Effect

Global Warming

The Anointed ('good') approach to Modelling

Models generated by the Anointed consider changes to the Greenhouse Effect are driven by the assertion: ‘Anthropogenic Emissions cause Global Warming’.

Through circular reasoning and use of scenarios in shaping predictions, some unfavourable futures are forseen.

The Dissenters ('evil') approach to Modelling

Although sometimes incorporating similar scientific principles, the Dissenters approach is to estimate the magnitude of contribution to the total Greenhouse effect made by elevated levels of certain atmospheric gases.

Mostly, these models find small to modest contributions.

The Cardinal Model - a different sort of Dissenter model

Instead of trying to find the relationship between atmospheric gas concentrations and surface warming, the Cardinal model treats the Earth as a series of monthly 'experiments'. Various parameters (like temperatures) are measured monthly and fed to a model aimed at discerning, from the observations, to what extent, for example, increased carbon dioxide has contributed to enhance Greenhouse effect. The model utilises empirical parameters. Values for these parameters are estimated so as to minimise the difference of models 'outcome' to observed.

The author pioneered the Cardinal model.

Additional Detail in Volume II

Chapter 6 (pp 246-268) Goes into detail about the belief systems of Anointed and Dissenter

  • The True Believers and Zealots 242
  • The Realist Believers 245
  • The Moderates 247
  • The Informed Skeptics 248
  • The Non-believers 250
  • The Climate Change Anointed: the ‘good’ side 251
  • The Dissenters: the ‘evil’ side 254
  • Climate Change dogma, groupthink etc. 256

Chapter 7 (pp 268-284) covers the various philosphical approached to modelling

  • Hypotheses and Assertions 265
  • Model Construction 268
  • Anointed models: 268
  • Dissenter predictive models 271
  • The Cardinal Model – a descriptive model 272