Volume One Chapter Eight: Model Validation – How good are the Projections?

The failure of the models of the Anointed to meet any of the criteria required fo scientific validation render their predictions groundless. Considering the partial validation of Dissenter models and near perfect validation of the Cardinal model allows the following statement to be made.

The contribution to warming of the four most abundant greenhouse gases (after water vapor): carbon dioxide, ozone, nitrous oxide and methane from 1750 to the present is at most +0.25⁰C and that the contribution to warming cccoming from the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1750 to the present is at most +0.1⁰C

This is the best summary assessment of the true situation that the author can make.

Additional Detail in Volume II

Chapter 9 (pp 296-311) covers validation in detail

  • Hypotheses and causation 297
  • Anointed Models – based on an assertion 299
  • Dissenter Models 302
  • The Cardinal Model 304
  • The Acid Test of Model Validity 305
  • Summary 309